Usa Forum - Two brief items on Cuba's Military

NY.Transfer.News

8/23/2006 8:36:00 PM

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Two brief items on Cuba's Military

Via NY Transfer News Collective * All the News that Doesn't Fit

[Anti-Cuban counterrevolutionary poison masquerading as "objective" info. If
"Strategy Page" were truly objective, or even pretended more persuasively to
be so, as Stratfor does, they wouldn't use such loaded language ("dictator,"
"impoverished, imprisoned population," etc.) Useful only for keeping track
of the Bush regime-gusano trash talk. See the second item for description of
a book that might be an antidote. -NY Transfer]

sent by Walter Lippmann (cubanews)

Strategy Page - Aug 23, 2006
http://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htworld/articles/200...

Cuba's Non-Army

August 23, 2006: With Cuban dictator Fidel Castro both aging, and not
well, thoughts turn to what happens after he dies. That depends on
what the army does, and the army is not exactly what most people
think it is. Although the Cuban Army regularly displays its aging
Soviet tanks and personnel carriers, its main strength essentially
lies in a large body of personnel armed and trained as light
infantry. Most of the heavy ground equipment is in storage, and
apparently poorly maintained, while many units rely on bicycles for
transportation. On paper, with all reservists and militiamen
mobilized, Cuba can probably put about a million "troops" into the
field. Some active forces and specialized units aside, the state of
training is not high. But that means about ten percent of the
population armed, and ready to fight for whatever they believe the
new (post-Castro) should be.

In a recent sick-bed message to the people of Cuba, Castro told them
that they had to be prepared for the worst. In conjunction with
rumors that his condition is not only serious, but that he is not
coping well, some analysts believe this suggests that even if he
survives his current illness, he may never return to full power,
although he may resume it officially.

Meanwhile, across Cuba the public has been remarkably calm,
suggesting a wait-and-see attitude similar to that displayed by
Spaniards during Francisco Franco's final illness. Cuba, however, is
not likely to be similar to post-Franco Spain. Dictator Francisco
Franco made plans for a constitutional monarchy to take over when he
died, and it did. Fidel Castro wants a communist dictatorship to
continue running Cuba after he is dead.

Although some reservists have been alerted for activation after Fidel
took sick, security forces have actually made themselves less visible
than normal. Fidel's brother Raul apparently believes he has things
under control. Raul has long been commander of the armed forces, and
supervised the security forces as well. That should make Raul the new
dictator, if his brother dies. But the one unknown is how the many
Cubans, unhappy over years of dictatorship and economic
mismanagement, will push for a real change. Most of the communist
dictatorships have been replaced by democracies since 1989, and all
have prospered. North Korean and Cuba remain faithful to communist
dogma, and people are getting tired of paying for it. Fidel had the
personality and popularity to keep a lid on this, but his dour
brother Raul is more accustomed to ordering people to do things,
not persuading them. Perhaps aware of his shortcomings in the mass
manipulation area, Raul has already said he plans to improve
relations with the United States in the future. That would be the
post-Fidel future, because Fidel has used bad relations with the
United States as part of his act for decades. Amazingly, Fidel has
been able to get away with the "threat from the north" routine ever
since the 1960s, and use it to keep the impoverished and imprisoned
Cuban people with him.

Strategy Page's Self-Promotion:

StrategyPage provides quick, easy access to what is going on in
military affairs. We cover armed forces world wide, as well as up to
date reporting on wars and hotspots wherever they may be. All the
news you need, written so that it fits into the time you have for it.
The information is organized logically, with categories for different
weapons systems (armor, artillery, naval aviation, etc.). We also
cover the software of war, often ignored items like leadership,
peacetime operations, intelligence, information warfare and the like.
And we keep the information online, with archives going back to the
early 1980s. A search capability gives you quick access to whatever
you need. We put it all in context with military history, maps,
country background and useful links.

***

sent by Walter Lippmann (cubanews) - Aug 23, 2006

[A Canadian reader recommended this book to me yesterday. I haven't seen it,
but it can be ordered on the net. It looks unusually interesting, and comes
highly recommended. After hearing about the book, a quick Google search
found the article below from three years ago, which adds to the interest
which I had initially gotten about the book.-Walter Lippmann]

Cuba's Military 1990-2005:
Revolutionary Soldiers During Counter-Revolutionary Times

by Hal Klepak
Palgrave MacMillan, 2005
340 pages
ISBN: 1403972028

This book is the first examination of the Cuban military in the context of
Cuba's political and economic challenges in the aftermath of the collapse of
the USSR--and therefore of Soviet economic, political, and psychological
support. It does so by providing important historical and political
contexts of the development and engagement of the military.

This information and analysis are essential to understanding how U.S-Cuban
relations will develop, especially after the changes sure to follow the
death Fidel Castro.

*
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Two brief items on Cuba's Military

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