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600,000 People Quit WoW!

Orion Ryder

5/12/2011 1:20:00 PM

http://venturebeat.com/2011/05/11/warcraft-quit-600k-su...

I will come back and comment later.

Lots of meetings today.

Orion
37 Answers

Neil Cerutti

5/12/2011 1:39:00 PM

0

On 2011-05-12, Orion Ryder <orionryder@hotmail.com> wrote:
> http://venturebeat.com/2011/05/11/warcraft-quit-600k-su...
>
> I will come back and comment later.
>
> Lots of meetings today.

Starting with the 12,000,000 subscribers announced a couple
months back, they are now just squeaking by with 11,400,000.

OK, so a 5% drop in subscribers should worry them, but I don't
think terribly. It's probably mostly players who came back only
to check ou the expansion in the first place.

In any case, Blizzard's exit strategy is in place. Their MMO is
in development.

--
Neil Cerutti

nuts

5/12/2011 1:47:00 PM

0

Neil Cerutti wrote:
> On 2011-05-12, Orion Ryder <orionryder@hotmail.com> wrote:
>> http://venturebeat.com/2011/05/11/warcraft-quit-600k-su...
>>
>> I will come back and comment later.
>>
>> Lots of meetings today.
>
> Starting with the 12,000,000 subscribers announced a couple
> months back, they are now just squeaking by with 11,400,000.
>
> OK, so a 5% drop in subscribers should worry them, but I don't
> think terribly. It's probably mostly players who came back only
> to check ou the expansion in the first place.
>
> In any case, Blizzard's exit strategy is in place. Their MMO is
> in development.

I think their strategy is to release more expansions

http://www.next-gen.biz/news/blizzard-to-speed-up-warcraft-d...

"As our players have become more experienced playing World Of Warcraft
over many years, they have become much better and much faster at
consuming content. And so I think with Cataclysm they were able to
consume the content faster than with previous expansions, but that's why
we're working on developing more content."

Raymond E. Feist

5/12/2011 1:55:00 PM

0

In article
<01eca84c-1225-4792-8d28-9c887c3f5c04@f15g2000pro.googlegroups.com>,
Orion Ryder <orionryder@hotmail.com> wrote:

> http://venturebeat.com/2011/05/11/warcraft-quit-600k-su...
>
> I will come back and comment later.
>
> Lots of meetings today.
>
> Orion

Interesting. Of course assuming that all 600k subscribers who left that
quarter left for the same reason is a bit difficult to support. Any
game like this has a retention issue and I'd be interested in what the
normal rate of attrition is per quarter. If it's 300k per quarter, then
600k is very significant. If it's 450 K, it's still significant, but
not that much.

I found Cata relatively easy to solo through with my first toon, and now
I've just gotten my 2nd toon up to 85 with some stuff left to do. I
don't know how much I'm going to do with this one. The first one
already had loremaster so I didn't feel the need to exhaust every quest
line. My 2nd dosn't so maybe I'll go back and start dual boxing lower
levels and drag along lower level toons to boost my family guild.

In other words there are lots of things one can do in WOW that aren't
heroic level "end game" dungeons and raids.

I've always resented that one thing: that Blizzard is constantly yapping
"this is a social experience" and that a lot of content is established
that you can not solo experience it. As a long time gamer (35 or so
years) and having a hand in creating three games myself (one paper &
pencil, two computer) I know that it's easy as hell to let certain
design biases creep in--I've had enough discussions with other game
designers over the years to know that sometime's it's not "creep" but a
given that certain game play is "desirable." But Blizzard, IMHO, takes
it to an extreme at times and that's often why we see them "nurfing"
this or "boosting" that, and "tweaking" this other thing.

Which to me as a former designer tells me one thing: there is not enough
alpha testing of basic components and game play mechanics before they
integrate various modules and open up the play test realms. They appear
to have fallen into the mode of "we'll make this part of the game, just
like that other part of the game, only different." "Uldum will be a
little bit like Tanneris and Sithlus rolled into one, with . . . "

BTW, I also hate quest lines that start with stuff you can solo and ends
with, "go into that dungeon and talk to so and so; oh, btw, bring some
friends."

Best, R.E.F.

| || ||| ||||| || |

5/12/2011 2:04:00 PM

0


"nuts" <nuspammed@re.net> wrote in message news:iqgod2$3ju$3@dont-email.me...
> Neil Cerutti wrote:
>> On 2011-05-12, Orion Ryder <orionryder@hotmail.com> wrote:
>>> http://venturebeat.com/2011/05/11/warcraft-quit-600k-su...
>>>
>>> I will come back and comment later.
>>>
>>> Lots of meetings today.
>>
>> Starting with the 12,000,000 subscribers announced a couple
>> months back, they are now just squeaking by with 11,400,000.
>>
>> OK, so a 5% drop in subscribers should worry them, but I don't
>> think terribly. It's probably mostly players who came back only
>> to check ou the expansion in the first place.
>>
>> In any case, Blizzard's exit strategy is in place. Their MMO is
>> in development.
>
> I think their strategy is to release more expansions
>
> http://www.next-gen.biz/news/blizzard-to-speed-up-warcraft-d...
>
> "As our players have become more experienced playing World Of Warcraft over many years,
> they have become much better and much faster at consuming content. And so I think with
> Cataclysm they were able to consume the content faster than with previous expansions,
> but that's why we're working on developing more content."

translation, this cookie cutter goes up to 11

people consume content faster like touring europe
day 1 what a wonderful ancient church,
day 2 look at that ancient church,
day 3 nice church
day 4 oh another church
day 5 what a surprise, a church
day 6 if you drag me to another church I swear I will kill myself
day 7 if you drag me to another church I swear I will kill you

JC

5/12/2011 3:15:00 PM

0

On May 12, 9:55 am, "Raymond E. Feist" <raym...@bittersea.com> wrote:
> In article
> <01eca84c-1225-4792-8d28-9c887c3f5...@f15g2000pro.googlegroups.com>,
>  Orion Ryder <orionry...@hotmail.com> wrote:
>
> >http://venturebeat.com/2011/05/11/warcraft-quit-600k-su...
>
> > I will come back and comment later.
>
> > Lots of meetings today.
>
> > Orion
>
> Interesting.  Of course assuming that all 600k subscribers who left that
> quarter left for the same reason is a bit difficult to support.  Any
> game like this has a retention issue and I'd be interested in what the
> normal rate of attrition is per quarter.  If it's 300k per quarter, then
> 600k is very significant.  If it's 450 K, it's still significant, but
> not that much.

Unfortunately, I fear that this number doesn't include people who have
"quit", but whose subscriptions haven't run out yet. And I think this
is a VERY non trivial number. I have one foot out that door, but not
quite yet.

> BTW, I also hate quest lines that start with stuff you can solo and ends
> with, "go into that dungeon and talk to so and so; oh, btw, bring some
> friends."

Yeah, this annoys me as well, although it's a LOT better than it was.
Remember Shadowmoon Valley? Literally every questline was like that.
8-9 soloable quests, and then BAM... Zuluhed the Whacked, suggested
players: 5. And those were the quests that yielded the decent
rewards...

C J Campbell

5/12/2011 4:07:00 PM

0

On 2011-05-12 06:55:03 -0700, Raymond E. Feist said:

> In article
> <01eca84c-1225-4792-8d28-9c887c3f5c04@f15g2000pro.googlegroups.com>,
> Orion Ryder <orionryder@hotmail.com> wrote:
>
>> http://venturebeat.com/2011/05/11/warcraft-quit-600k-su...
>>
>> I will come back and comment later.
>>
>> Lots of meetings today.
>>
>> Orion
>
> Interesting. Of course assuming that all 600k subscribers who left that
> quarter left for the same reason is a bit difficult to support. Any
> game like this has a retention issue and I'd be interested in what the
> normal rate of attrition is per quarter. If it's 300k per quarter, then
> 600k is very significant. If it's 450 K, it's still significant, but
> not that much.
>
> I found Cata relatively easy to solo through with my first toon, and now
> I've just gotten my 2nd toon up to 85 with some stuff left to do. I
> don't know how much I'm going to do with this one. The first one
> already had loremaster so I didn't feel the need to exhaust every quest
> line. My 2nd dosn't so maybe I'll go back and start dual boxing lower
> levels and drag along lower level toons to boost my family guild.
>
> In other words there are lots of things one can do in WOW that aren't
> heroic level "end game" dungeons and raids.
>
> I've always resented that one thing: that Blizzard is constantly yapping
> "this is a social experience" and that a lot of content is established
> that you can not solo experience it. As a long time gamer (35 or so
> years) and having a hand in creating three games myself (one paper &
> pencil, two computer) I know that it's easy as hell to let certain
> design biases creep in--I've had enough discussions with other game
> designers over the years to know that sometime's it's not "creep" but a
> given that certain game play is "desirable." But Blizzard, IMHO, takes
> it to an extreme at times and that's often why we see them "nurfing"
> this or "boosting" that, and "tweaking" this other thing.
>
> Which to me as a former designer tells me one thing: there is not enough
> alpha testing of basic components and game play mechanics before they
> integrate various modules and open up the play test realms. They appear
> to have fallen into the mode of "we'll make this part of the game, just
> like that other part of the game, only different." "Uldum will be a
> little bit like Tanneris and Sithlus rolled into one, with . . . "
>
> BTW, I also hate quest lines that start with stuff you can solo and ends
> with, "go into that dungeon and talk to so and so; oh, btw, bring some
> friends."
>
> Best, R.E.F.

Good thing you don't write books that way! "Now that our hero is
hanging on the edge of a cliff, the last chapter is sealed until you
can find three other people to read it with you."

--
Waddling Eagle
World Famous Flight Instructor

Neil Cerutti

5/12/2011 4:12:00 PM

0

On 2011-05-12, C J Campbell
<christophercampbellremovethis@hotmail.com> wrote:
>> BTW, I also hate quest lines that start with stuff you can
>> solo and ends with, "go into that dungeon and talk to so and
>> so; oh, btw, bring some friends."
>>
>> Best, R.E.F.
>
> Good thing you don't write books that way! "Now that our hero
> is hanging on the edge of a cliff, the last chapter is sealed
> until you can find three other people to read it with you."

Some really successful books are written this way, of course.

"Gandalf! It's the Eagles!"
"Arrgh! I hate Hotel California."
"No, silly, the giant eagles who are going to save our army from
ruin and rescue Frodo and Sam from Mount Doom."

Benefitting from circumstance is an acceptable plot device, as
long as it isn't used too often, e.g., in Rowling.

--
Neil Cerutti

Catriona R

5/12/2011 4:32:00 PM

0


On Thu, 12 May 2011 08:15:02 -0700 (PDT), JC <jc1k@hotmail.com> wrote:

>> BTW, I also hate quest lines that start with stuff you can solo and ends
>> with, "go into that dungeon and talk to so and so; oh, btw, bring some
>> friends."
>
>Yeah, this annoys me as well, although it's a LOT better than it was.
>Remember Shadowmoon Valley? Literally every questline was like that.
>8-9 soloable quests, and then BAM... Zuluhed the Whacked, suggested
>players: 5. And those were the quests that yielded the decent
>rewards...

Yeah the game has vastly improved in that respect - Shadowmoon was
kinda epic feeling for the first, um, 3 months of TBC, and you could
see why the hard group quests were there at that point; it did make it
feel like you were fighting really powerful enemies. For the last year
of it though, you just weren't doing those quests unless you could bug
some friends to help, and even then, there were so damn many of them
it was seriously annoying. The new way of just having you fight
alongside NPCs might make it feel a bit too easy at times, but at
least you can actually finish the storyline if you're not in a large,
super-social and extra-helpful guild.
--
EU-Draenor:
Sagart (85 Undead Priest)
Tairbh (85 Tauren Druid)
Buinne (82 Troll Shaman)
Balgair (80 Human Rogue)
Ruire (80 Blood Elf Paladin)

Raymond E. Feist

5/12/2011 6:02:00 PM

0

In article
<d87daacc-1788-457e-9ee3-ac48a0b6ba9e@p23g2000vbl.googlegroups.com>,
JC <jc1k@hotmail.com> wrote:

> On May 12, 9:55 am, "Raymond E. Feist" <raym...@bittersea.com> wrote:
> > In article
> > <01eca84c-1225-4792-8d28-9c887c3f5...@f15g2000pro.googlegroups.com>,
> >  Orion Ryder <orionry...@hotmail.com> wrote:
> >
> > >http://venturebeat.com/2011/05/11/warcraft-quit-600k-su...
> >
> > > I will come back and comment later.
> >
> > > Lots of meetings today.
> >
> > > Orion
> >
> > Interesting.  Of course assuming that all 600k subscribers who left that
> > quarter left for the same reason is a bit difficult to support.  Any
> > game like this has a retention issue and I'd be interested in what the
> > normal rate of attrition is per quarter.  If it's 300k per quarter, then
> > 600k is very significant.  If it's 450 K, it's still significant, but
> > not that much.
>
> Unfortunately, I fear that this number doesn't include people who have
> "quit", but whose subscriptions haven't run out yet. And I think this
> is a VERY non trivial number. I have one foot out that door, but not
> quite yet.
>
> > BTW, I also hate quest lines that start with stuff you can solo and ends
> > with, "go into that dungeon and talk to so and so; oh, btw, bring some
> > friends."
>
> Yeah, this annoys me as well, although it's a LOT better than it was.
> Remember Shadowmoon Valley? Literally every questline was like that.
> 8-9 soloable quests, and then BAM... Zuluhed the Whacked, suggested
> players: 5. And those were the quests that yielded the decent
> rewards...

The problem with making assumptions about subscription based services is
there can be many reasons why people depart. It's why good companies
put effort into retention. DirecTV is an example of how hard they work
at it; they are very effective and their customer retention rate is very
high.

It's like being Coke instead of Pepsi. Coke is trying to keep market
share while Pepsi is trying to grown it.

Blizzard is losing people for a variety of reasons, bad economy, boredom
with the game, curiosity about other games, migration to other hobbies,
etc. They'll have a good statistical model about how much of the
current subscriber base they'll lose each month. Moreover, it will be
broken down by markets. The payment model, for example, in Asia is very
different than in North America, or Eastern Europe, for example. I'll
skip the neepery about how they differ save to point out where they're
losing subscribers is also a critical datum.

After the dust settles, if it's "we lost an additional 100k subscribers
in North American, Western Europe, and Australia because they hate the
new content," yah, then they have a huge problem. Statistically that's
off the charts. If it's "we lost an additional 200K but because of all
the usual reasons in Asia and Eastern Europe," well, then it's something
to keep an eye on but it may be merely a statistical anomaly.

Best, R.E.F.

Raymond E. Feist

5/12/2011 6:03:00 PM

0

In article
<2011051209065590022-christophercampbellremovethis@hotmailcom>,
C J Campbell <christophercampbellremovethis@hotmail.com> wrote:

> On 2011-05-12 06:55:03 -0700, Raymond E. Feist said:
>
> > In article
> > <01eca84c-1225-4792-8d28-9c887c3f5c04@f15g2000pro.googlegroups.com>,
> > Orion Ryder <orionryder@hotmail.com> wrote:
> >
> >> http://venturebeat.com/2011/05/11/warcraft-quit-600k-su...
> >>
> >> I will come back and comment later.
> >>
> >> Lots of meetings today.
> >>
> >> Orion
> >
> > Interesting. Of course assuming that all 600k subscribers who left that
> > quarter left for the same reason is a bit difficult to support. Any
> > game like this has a retention issue and I'd be interested in what the
> > normal rate of attrition is per quarter. If it's 300k per quarter, then
> > 600k is very significant. If it's 450 K, it's still significant, but
> > not that much.
> >
> > I found Cata relatively easy to solo through with my first toon, and now
> > I've just gotten my 2nd toon up to 85 with some stuff left to do. I
> > don't know how much I'm going to do with this one. The first one
> > already had loremaster so I didn't feel the need to exhaust every quest
> > line. My 2nd dosn't so maybe I'll go back and start dual boxing lower
> > levels and drag along lower level toons to boost my family guild.
> >
> > In other words there are lots of things one can do in WOW that aren't
> > heroic level "end game" dungeons and raids.
> >
> > I've always resented that one thing: that Blizzard is constantly yapping
> > "this is a social experience" and that a lot of content is established
> > that you can not solo experience it. As a long time gamer (35 or so
> > years) and having a hand in creating three games myself (one paper &
> > pencil, two computer) I know that it's easy as hell to let certain
> > design biases creep in--I've had enough discussions with other game
> > designers over the years to know that sometime's it's not "creep" but a
> > given that certain game play is "desirable." But Blizzard, IMHO, takes
> > it to an extreme at times and that's often why we see them "nurfing"
> > this or "boosting" that, and "tweaking" this other thing.
> >
> > Which to me as a former designer tells me one thing: there is not enough
> > alpha testing of basic components and game play mechanics before they
> > integrate various modules and open up the play test realms. They appear
> > to have fallen into the mode of "we'll make this part of the game, just
> > like that other part of the game, only different." "Uldum will be a
> > little bit like Tanneris and Sithlus rolled into one, with . . . "
> >
> > BTW, I also hate quest lines that start with stuff you can solo and ends
> > with, "go into that dungeon and talk to so and so; oh, btw, bring some
> > friends."
> >
> > Best, R.E.F.
>
> Good thing you don't write books that way! "Now that our hero is
> hanging on the edge of a cliff, the last chapter is sealed until you
> can find three other people to read it with you."

LOL. Hadn't even thought of that as a metaphor.

Best,R.E.F.